小贴士
Xizhen,G.Z.(1991:26-45)lists eight functions of context,namely absolute function;restrictive function;interpretive function;design function;filtering function;generative function;transformative function;acquisitive function.
机场旅客量预测中的特殊要素
Special Elements in the Forecast of Airport Passenger Volume
在机场旅客量的预测中，我们采用的各种预测方法都是“用过去推测未来”。但这些方法都有一个共同的缺陷，就是预测的时间越长越不可靠。这其实是因为我们对特殊要素无法预测而引起的。
比如20世纪90年代初的民航改革给旅客量带来了巨大增长，它就是我们从之前的增长模型中预测不出来的特殊要素。在机场旅客量的预测中常见的特殊要素有：跑道数的增加、航站楼的扩容、经济危机、大规模传染性疾病的流行等等。我们在做旅客量预测之前应该对这些特殊要素开展研究和预判，找出旅客量成长的限制性要素。
（作者：Feld Liu）
In the forecast of airport passenger volume, the various forecasting methods we use are "to speculate on the future with the past".But there is a common flaw in all of these approaches,which is that the longer the prediction is, the less reliable it is.This is actually caused by our unpredictability of special elements.
For example, the civil aviation reform in the early 1990s brought about a huge increase in passenger volume, which is a special element that we could not predict from the previous growth model.Among the special elements commonly found in the forecast of airport passenger volume are the increase in the number of runways, the expansion of the terminal building,the economic crisis, the prevalence of large-scale infectious diseases, and so on.We should study and prejudge these special elements before making passenger volume forecasts to identify the restrictive elements of passenger volume growth.
藏药麻花秦艽醇提物对胶原诱导型关节炎模型小鼠滑膜组织中NF-κB p65表达的影响 ………………… 贾 娜等（15）：2082
(Written by Feld Liu)